As the year comes to a close, it’s time to look ahead to the key factors that will likely shape the payments landscape in 2025. While no one knows for sure what developments will have the biggest impact, it’s safe to assume that artificial intelligence (AI) will play a key role in payments in the new year — for better or for worse. Here are three ways in which AI is likely to affect payments in 2025.

AI use cases will become clearer.

While many organizations continue to explore diverse use cases for AI, the technology’s role in payments has become clearer in recent years. For example, using AI to automate accounts payable (AP) and accounts receivable (AR) processes can help companies cut down on a lot of manual work.

However, we have barely scratched the surface of AI’s potential. In its 2025 Commerce and Payment Trends Report, Global Payments speculated that AI could eventually be used in inventory management, recognizing items that have been warehoused for long periods of time and adjusting pricing to clear those items.

But as for the near term, Global Payments projects AI to deliver some “early wins” in 2025, such as using AI to extend credit. Companies can vet potential suppliers and customers, assessing their creditworthiness and then recommending appropriate products. Mark Smith, Head of Payments Market and Development for Amazon Web Services, told Global Payments that organizations can offer more personalized financing arrangements to a customer if they are able to evaluate multiple factors that are specific to them. However, he also cautioned that companies will need to remove any biases from their AI models that could prevent financing.

As for adoption, it may come as a surprise that small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are particularly bullish on AI. Fully 94% of SMBs surveyed by Global Payments said that they are exploring AI for biometrics, while 67% said they are using it for tap-to-pay/tap-to-phone transactions. However, 13% said they do not fully understand the technology.

Through AI, payments fraud will continue to evolve.

Fraud will plague treasury and financial operations teams just as it did in 2024, as criminals refine their methods and apply new technology. Visa noted that fraud attacks were up 200% between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year, largely due to criminals using —you guessed it — AI.

Research from AU10TIX revealed that criminals are using generative AI (GenAI) to produce highly realistic, deepfaked selfies that can bypass biometric authentication technology. Up until this point, selfies have been one of the most reliable sources for verification, due to the challenges of outsmarting facial recognition software. But now, this new threat may force companies to rethink their Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures, as facial matching software might no longer be reliable.

Criminals are also using bots to create synthetic, unique identity templates with randomized photo elements, document numbers and other personal identifiers. Fraudsters have found success using these templates to open fraudulent accounts in payments, banking and cryptocurrencies.

This new threat may portend a shift in fraudsters’ tactics. AU10TIX found that usage of image template manipulation as a mode of attack surged drastically in Q3 2024 in North America in both the payments and crypto sectors. Meanwhile, using document numbers as a mode of attack decreased dramatically from the previous quarter.

The crypto sector will be one to watch in particular in 2025. Fraudsters targeted the sector throughout 2024 as Bitcoin’s price surged to all-time highs throughout the year. With the incoming administration’s plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, investment management firm VanEck is projecting the cryptocurrency’s price could hit as high as $180,000 in Q1 2025. That’s a prime target for cybercrime.

AI will help organizations to prevent fraud.

On the positive side of the equation, companies will continue to deploy AI to protect themselves against these advanced fraud attacks. Visa noted that it was able to stop about 85% more fraud attempts on Cyber Monday than it had the year before. Among Visa’s fraud prevention tools is the Visa Account Attack Intelligence Score (VAAI), which uses GenAI to identify and rank the severity of enumeration (brute force) attacks designed to find valid user account data.

Likewise, Mastercard has also made major investments in GenAI that zeroes in on suspicious activity, scanning transaction data across billions of cards and millions of merchants, explained Ranjita Iyer, Executive Vice President, Services for North America at Mastercard in the Global Payments report. And Amazon Web Services’ Mark Smith added that through large language models, AI can identify payment activity that is outside historical norms and alert payment processors.

Eyes on AI in 2025

As the new year begins, all eyes in the payments world will be on AI and how it can both help and hinder transactions. If used correctly, it can expedite the payments process, while quickly identifying and thwarting illicit transactions. But as criminals continue to evolve their methods and deploy AI in new and unique ways, organizations will have to be equally innovative in their use of the technology to keep pace and protect their data.

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